Monday, January 16, 2006


I'm nevous. I went to a few holiday parties. I never drank so much overpriced wine and gnoshed such fancy finger food in my life. And at those parties I sensed that everybody is doing not just well but swell. Too many people are making more money than they ever dreamed about. Guys who a few years ago were sweating the monthly maintenance payment on their off-the-beaten-track co-op are now looking to buy one of Trump's latest auto-fellatio luxury tower units. Bonuses on Wall Street reached a record in 2005. Everybody is just a little too fat and happy. Hogs are fat and happy because Farmer Green Jeans has been feeding them an extra allotment of corn so he can get the best price for them at the slaughter house. Farmer Green Jeans in this case is none other than Alan Greenspan. Farmer Greenspan had been feeding us an extra allotment of historically low interest rates and easy money. The contrarian in me senses danger when everyone is just a little too fat and happy, almost giddy. That reminds me of the real estate market in 1989. That reminds me of the Nasdaq in 1999. The same roaring party hardy attitude prevailed just before October 1929. (What is it about years that end in 9?) The pendulum swings between greed and fear, and right now the pendulum is at the extreme limit of greed and ready to swing the other way. I think 2006 will be the Year of Fear. I'm sorry to say this, my friends, but I am filled with foreboding about 2006. Mae West may have said that too much of a good thing is wonderful. But when it comes to prosperity, too much of a good thing foretells its own undoing. When people are too happy, they get careless, complacent. Kind of like a buck when he's rutting and is too much in priapic bliss to realize that a hunter a hundred years away has him in his cross hairs. I don't know what untoward event (s) might happen and don't care to guess. All I can say is be careful and maybe even take a few chips off the table. I predict the stock market will be lower this time next year, maybe by alot. Happy trading, Nick

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